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<p>Dear colleagues,<br>
<br>
There is <b>ONE WEEK LEFT </b>to participate in the <u><a href="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/instructions/" target="_blank" title="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/instructions/"><span style="color:#6888C9">Societal Change Forecasting Tournament</span></a></u>!
<strong><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Participation deadline is <i>
December 7<sup>th</sup>, 2020</i>.</span></strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>We’re looking for scientists (PIs, postdocs, grad students) to forecasts how the following variables will change in the USA over the next year:
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1">
<strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Life satisfaction</span></strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif">
</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1">
<strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Political polarization and ideology
</span></strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1">
<strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Positive/negative affect on social media</span></strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif">
</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1">
<strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Bias towards African-Americans and Asian-Americans</span></strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif">
</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1">
<strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Gender/career bias</span></strong><b><span lang="EN-CA">
</span></b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></li></ul>
<p>We’re interested in how scientists think about the societal changes in the months to come. To create your numerical forecasts, you will receive past monthly data (42 months). These forecasts can be generated via method of your choice (e.g., general intuition
or theory, data-modelling, or some other mix).<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><br>
Participants are <u>eligible for authorship</u>. We aim to publish in interdisciplinary high-impact journal. Additionally, as a participant, you obtain greater insight into accuracy of your forecasts.<br>
<br>
For more information please visit our <u><a href="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/instructions/" target="_blank" title="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/instructions/"><span style="color:#6888C9">website (predictions.uwaterloo.ca)</span></a></u>, or email
us at <u><a href="mailto:predictions.collab@outlook.com" target="_blank" title="mailto:predictions.collab@outlook.com"><span style="color:#6888C9">predictions.collab@outlook.com</span></a></u>.
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><strong><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Video Explanation here:</span></strong><b><span lang="EN-CA">
</span></b><strong><u><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><a href="http://youtu.be/CVvHsQSIJOg" target="_blank" title="http://youtu.be/cvvhsqsijog"><span style="color:#6888C9">youtu.be/CVvHsQSIJOg</span></a></span></u></strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><br>
Best wishes and stay safe!<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><br>
Igor<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><em><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">This study has been reviewed and received ethics clearance through a University of Waterloo Research Ethics Committee (ORE#42142). If you have any questions about the study,
please contact Igor Grossmann (</span></em><u><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:8.0pt"><a href="mailto:igrossma@uwaterloo.ca" target="_blank" title="mailto:igrossma@uwaterloo.ca"><em><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#6888C9">igrossma@uwaterloo.ca</span></em></a></span></u><em><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">).</span></em><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white">Igor Grossmann, Ph.D.</span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<span style="background:white">__________________________________________</span><br>
<span style="background:white">Director, <i>Wisdom and Culture Laboratory</i></span><br>
</span><span lang="EN-CA"><a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/wisdom-and-culture-lab"><span style="color:blue;background:white">https://uwaterloo.ca/wisdom-and-culture-lab</span></a></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white"> </span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<span style="background:white">Associate Editor, <i>Social Psychological and Personality Science</i></span><br>
<br>
<i><span style="background:white"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white">Co-host of the </span><i><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black">On Wisdom Podcast</span></i><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
</span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><a href="https://onwisdompodcast.com/"><span style="color:blue;background:white">onwisdompodcast.com</span></a></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white"> </span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<br>
<span style="background:white">Associate Professor of Psychology</span><br>
<span style="background:white">University of Waterloo, Canada</span><br>
<span style="background:white">CV <a href="http://bit.ly/IgorG"><span style="color:blue">http://bit.ly/IgorG</span></a>
</span></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black">###JOIN THE BEHAVIORAL & SOCIAL SCIENCE FORECASTING COLLABORATIVE###<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><a href="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/"><span style="color:blue">https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Igor Grossmann <br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, November 12, 2020 3:37 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> 'announcements@lists.cognitivesciencesociety.org' <announcements@lists.cognitivesciencesociety.org><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Call for contributors: Phase II Forecasts for the Behavioral, Cognitive, & Social Science Forecasting Collaborative<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in">
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799">Dear colleagues,<br>
<br>
What do scientists - senior academics and graduate students - think about the societal changes in the months to come? How accurate are these forecasts?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;box-sizing: border-box;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.02);text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><br>
The <a href="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/" target="_blank"><span style="color:#F37221">Forecasting Collaborative</span></a> is again seeking scientists (and related disciplines) to forecast changes in: <strong><span style="font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif">Life
satisfaction, political polarization and ideology, positive/negative affect on social media, bias towards African-Americans and Asian-Americans, and gender/career bias </span></strong>over the next 12 months.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;box-sizing: border-box;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.02);text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><br>
You will receive past monthly data (42 months) to create numerical forecasts for the next 12 months. These forecasts can be generated via method of your choice (e.g., general intuition or theory, data-modelling, or some other mix).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;box-sizing: border-box;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.02);text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><br>
We are for publication in interdisciplinary high-impact journal. Participants are eligible to contribute as authors. Additionally, as a participant, you obtain greater insight into accuracy of your forecasts (which can be used to inform future forecasts). We
also encourage graduate students to participate.<br>
<br>
For more information please visit <a href="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/" target="_blank"><span style="color:#F37221">our website (predictions.uwaterloo.ca)</span></a>, or email us at <a href="mailto:predictions.collab@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style="color:#F37221">predictions.collab@gmail.com</span></a>. <strong><span style="font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif">Participation
deadline is December 7</span></strong></span><strong><sup><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799">th</span></sup></strong><strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799">, 2020.</span></strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;box-sizing: border-box;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.02);text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;box-sizing: border-box;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.02);text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px">
<strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799">Video Explanation here: youtu.be/CVvHsQSIJOg</span></strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;box-sizing: border-box;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.02);text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><br>
Best wishes and stay safe!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><br>
Igor<br>
<br>
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in">
<em><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799">This study has been reviewed and received ethics clearance through a University of Waterloo Research Ethics Committee (ORE#42142). If you have any questions about the study,
please contact Igor Grossmann (</span></em><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><a href="mailto:igrossma@uwaterloo.ca" target="_blank"><em><span style="font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#F37221">igrossma@uwaterloo.ca</span></em></a><em><span style="font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif">).</span></em></span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#336799"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white">Igor Grossmann, Ph.D.</span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<span style="background:white">__________________________________________</span><br>
<span style="background:white">Director, <i>Wisdom and Culture Laboratory</i></span><br>
</span><span lang="EN-CA"><a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/wisdom-and-culture-lab"><span style="color:blue;background:white">https://uwaterloo.ca/wisdom-and-culture-lab</span></a><span style="color:black;background:white"> </span><span style="color:black"><br>
<span style="background:white">Associate Editor, <i>Social Psychological and Personality Science<o:p></o:p></i></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white">Co-host of the </span><i><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black">On Wisdom Podcast</span></i><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<a href="https://onwisdompodcast.com/"><span style="color:blue;background:white">onwisdompodcast.com</span></a><span style="background:white"> </span><br>
<br>
<span style="background:white">Associate Professor of Psychology</span><br>
<span style="background:white">University of Waterloo, Canada</span><br>
<span style="background:white">CV <a href="http://bit.ly/IgorG"><span style="color:blue">http://bit.ly/IgorG</span></a>
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black">###JOIN THE BEHAVIORAL & SOCIAL SCIENCE FORECASTING COLLABORATIVE###<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><a href="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/"><span style="color:blue">https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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