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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">Dear colleagues,<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic",sans-serif;color:#050505"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">Updated DEADLINE for FORECASTING COLLABORATIVE SUBMISSIONS for social consequences of COVID19: May 22.
Also note, we <b>updated gender & race bias datasets</b> with better census weighting of estimates.
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">WEBSITE: predictions.uwaterloo.ca
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">We are seeking expert estimates (scientists, CS, etc.) based on expertise or models for life satisfaction,
affect on social media, race and gender bias, political ideology, and political polarization. The goal of this project is to investigate the accuracy of forecasts made by social scientists about critical social issues in the US over the next 12 months.</span></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic",sans-serif;color:#050505"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">By participating, you will gain insights into your estimate accuracy and have the opportunity to get authorship
on the resulting publication.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">If you choose to participate, you can use your expertise and/or data modeling to estimate points for each
of the next 12 months, then answer a few questions about your rationale/model. You use past data (available at <a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpredictions.uwaterloo.ca%2Fdatasets%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1IcyVVCxMRumRX_VSLGfiLdGlyONzns61_9HkIpxbnv3SId5szVf69w5s&h=AT3BowIik_DQMQafjizplIziJbWScC-W7cqPzRofFPeTB761HCLIM3fJ6dLIBnEHrrmhBogP9yRUDiCasdLvVRZRgDy1wbSuAudMMPCFgvO7ETPXKWmXAhV0AQwmIuZq&__tn__=-UK-R&c%5b0%5d=AT1ja7Zc9wwgz4sM-x00B516J4JCgLmUn3rrwLU1kuNfxjP611iTGBSm4jdnC5WdG68Pi9zGlaULEOVnDEe7hbYiCn8EprJn0_fVSylIJMn1h6ewnotZE6Dyedhws0yqJ2IGt4dMjyocdNC6Nkamd9NtRHUqqDH5Swv41RQw-QF35TfERj5isqE" target="_blank"><span style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/datasets/</span></a>)
to inform these predictions. After six months, we will contact you again to obtain possible updates on your forecasts based on new data.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic",sans-serif;color:#050505"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">We are aiming to publish the results in an interdisciplinary high-impact journal, and to summarize the
forecasts to the general public.</span></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic",sans-serif;color:#050505"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">More details about how to participate are available her: <a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpredictions.uwaterloo.ca%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR02dT7e06Su1CwBZ2gQQiK6bekl-Oxf24drNKFeUc1k07bpXDdKJnYevv8&h=AT0mXKRznUNrC6P6_pklRc-hMAN2bTK1CIa-Bm865DWcJI9W2brCxPgEznjXKW5PuqInMz9cXVRmHjklaaRTkoZlS6x_IC51CcfxfZSr32ffKBWzHsyrokwzKeLiTaPi&__tn__=-UK-R&c%5b0%5d=AT1ja7Zc9wwgz4sM-x00B516J4JCgLmUn3rrwLU1kuNfxjP611iTGBSm4jdnC5WdG68Pi9zGlaULEOVnDEe7hbYiCn8EprJn0_fVSylIJMn1h6ewnotZE6Dyedhws0yqJ2IGt4dMjyocdNC6Nkamd9NtRHUqqDH5Swv41RQw-QF35TfERj5isqE" target="_blank"><span style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">Best wishes and stay safe!<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">Igor<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span class="oi732d6d"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"inherit",serif;color:#050505">On behalf of The Behavioral Science Forecasting Collaborative</span></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic",sans-serif;color:#050505"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white">Igor Grossmann, Ph.D.</span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<span style="background:white">__________________________________________</span><br>
<span style="background:white">Director, <i>Wisdom and Culture Laboratory</i></span><br>
</span><span lang="EN-CA"><a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/wisdom-and-culture-lab"><span style="color:blue;background:white">https://uwaterloo.ca/wisdom-and-culture-lab</span></a></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white"> </span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<span style="background:white">Associate Editor, <i>Social Psychological and Personality Science</i></span><br>
<span style="background:white">Associate Editor, <i>Emotion<o:p></o:p></i></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white">Co-host of the </span><i><span lang="EN-CA">On Wisdom Podcast</span></i><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
</span><span lang="EN-CA"><a href="https://onwisdompodcast.com/"><span style="color:blue;background:white">https://onwisdompodcast.com</span></a></span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black;background:white"> </span><span lang="EN-CA" style="color:black"><br>
<br>
<span style="background:white">Associate Professor of Psychology</span><br>
<span style="background:white">University of Waterloo, Canada</span><br>
<span style="background:white">CV <a href="http://bit.ly/IgorG"><span style="color:blue">http://bit.ly/IgorG</span></a>
</span></span><span lang="EN-CA"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">###JOIN THE BEHAVIORAL & SOCIAL SCIENCE FORECASTING COLLABORATIVE###<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/"><span style="color:blue">https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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